Showing posts with label Habits. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Habits. Show all posts

Friday, 6 June 2014

Five Habits of Highly Successful Investors - #5: Understand risk

Habit #5: Understand risk
This is the hardest habit to form, simply because most of us investors never count risk as part of the equation. And those who do, have a fuzzy idea of what ‘risk’ really means.
In general terms, investing risk refers to the uncertainty of the occurrence of a certain event that can affect future returns. But ask Buffett, and he would go a step further. Buffett defines risk as ‘permanent loss of capital’.
As per this definition, risk is to lose whatever you’ve invested and not have any chance to get it back. Short term fluctuations in the stock prices, therefore, don’t equate with ‘risk’, as is generally considered in the investing circles. 
So the good idea for you to become a smart investor is to understand what risks you are taking while investing in stocks.
Before buying a stock, try to answer this question – “Can this stock cause a permanent loss of capital to me?”
If your answer is ‘yes’, or even ‘maybe’, you better stay away from that stock. Buying it despite knowing that it would involve risk-taking would be foolish.
Of course we can never eliminate risks from stock market investing, but we surely can minimise the chances of the same.
I believe the whole series of this articles (#1, #2, #3, #4, and #5) will help us to reduce the risk significantly.  
As per my earlier articles, there are 2 types of risk faced by stock investors - (1) Capital Risk, and (2) Timing Risk. To mitigate the risk, I will guide myself only buy a good companies (to reduce capital risk) in a huge margin of safety (to reduce timing risk).
"Confronted with a challenge to distil the secret of sound investment into three words, we venture the motto, Margin of Safety."  - Benjamin Graham

"A margin of safety is necessary because valuation is an imprecise art, the future is unpredictable, and investors are human and do make mistakes. It is adherence to the concept of a margin of safety that best distinguishes value investors from all others, who are not as concerned about loss." - Seth Klarman

Five Habits of Highly Successful Investors - #4: Mind your behaviour

Habit #4: Mind your behaviour
Minding your own behaviour plays a critical role in your acts as an investor. We humans are not hard-wired to be rational beings despite the fact that we clam this honour. The truth is that we are rationalising beings. We make emotional decisions and then try to rationalise the same with logic.
Sensible investing however requires that we notice where our emotions are guiding us to, and then take preventive measures to fall in emotional traps. Traps like:
  • Being overconfident – We know all the right answers!
  • Wishful thinking – Hearing from others what we believe to be true.
  • Availability bias – Believing the news that’s readily available.
  • Framing – Going by how words are framed and not the rationale behind the same.
  • Following the herd – My truth, your truth, ‘the’ truth!
We are human. And, this is the most difficult part. Feel free to suggest how can overcome this? And, I am ready to learn.
 
Refences:-

 

Five Habits of Highly Successful Investors -#3: Read…read…read

Habit #3: Read…read…read
That’s the best habit that to can have as an investor. 
Successful investors will tell you that if you just read a company’s annual report, you will be better read than 90% of all investors. And if you read the footnotes (explanations) after the financial statements in an annual report, you’ll be better than 99% of all investors.
Warren Buffett’s business partner Charlie Munger once said, “In my whole life, I have known no wise people over a broad subject matter area who didn’t read all the time – none, zero.”
Buffett and Munger are both well-known for the incredible amount of reading they do. And you can follow their footsteps by starting with reading a lot.
Read books on value investing. Read books on human behaviour. Read books on the financial history of the world. You never know when you’ll find a brilliant idea to add to your repertoire.
Read the daily newspapers, read the annual reports, read the biographies of successful businessmen.
Knowledge is power, and there is no shortcut to success. Not even in investing!
Yes, and it is related to #2. An investor need to know the language of business, and then using it to study the the financial statement and dissect the numbers.  

Apart from that, an investor can further read other related materials to equip with better knowledge. There are few information sources that an investor worth to spend time to take a look. And, again the language of business is essential knowledge before you can perform further reading.
  • Analyst Report – how the professional analysts view on the company result, future growth capabilities and the valuation of the company. 
  • Press release \ bursa announcement – latest projects, latest development, etc… 
  • Industry related data – e.g. CPO price for plantation counter 
  • Direct experience on company product \ service.

Five Habits of Highly Successful Investors - #2: Know basic accounting

Habit #2: Know basic accounting

Accounting is the language of business.

You need to understand basic accounting to identify good companies from the bad ones based on their past financial performance.

You have no right to invest in the stock markets if you not able to read the financial statement.

Yes, I totally agree with this points. By reading the financial statement and dissect the numbers, give retail investor like us able to find out a good companies, gauge the intrinsic value, and buy it when there is a satisfied margin of safety.
"In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield." - WarrenBuffett

Every companies listed in bursa, provide the quarter and annual financial statement. And each financial statement, consits of 3 main components, i.e. Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement. Do take a look on it and check out how's the company performance.  

There is no free lunch in the investment world. And, it is a expensive lesson if a retailer buying into a stock without looking on its financial statement. Do always check out the latest result released for your companies and keep an eye on when is the next quarter result release.


"If you don't study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards. " - Peter Lynch
"An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative. " - Benjamin Graham
 
 
Refences:-

Five Habits of Highly Successful Investors - #1: Set a goal, and work towards it

Habit #1: Set a goal, and work towards it

Investment is not only “To make money!”,  we should use the money to support a bigger idea. E.g. nest egg for post retirement life, children's education, marriage, world tour, etc...

The goals are not static and subject to change. Revisit it whenever there has been a major change in your life, i.e. marriage, child birth, purchase of home, .....


Says, I would like to have 3 million after 20 year to sponsor my retirement life. Currently I have a 150k savings and I able to save 6k per year (aka 500 per month). And, I am confidence that I am able to achieve this if I able to compound my investment with a 15% CAGR.  (You can work out your own number with a CAGR Calculator).



The above results from the CAGR Calculator show me that I should able to achieve my goal by investing as per planned. This is very important for me to know my goal in order for me to:-
  1. I know how much to save to achieve my goal? For me, I need to save RM500 per month and I can use extra balance from my salary to enjoy my life instead of being too frugal. 
  2.  I just need a 15% CAGR. And, I can go for a safety investment options by investing in mature companies instead of risk my money to find for a high growth invesment options that come together with high risk.

I will setup different portfolio to achieve different goal (child education, tour, etc...), perform the budget and set the target CAGR.

Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas. - Paul Samuelson

I would not pre-pay. I would invest instead and let the investments cover it. -  Dave Ramsey

I believe everyone have his own numbers. You can work out your version by key your numbers to the
CAGR Calculator and work towards it.

You can read this and this article from kcchongnz if you want to be more precise to know what is your own numbers. 


Refences:-