Thursday 21 August 2014

14 Characteristics of Crappy Stocks from kcchongnz

[1]. Loss-making companies and mostly companies in a bad shape.
E.g. MTDACPI - losses almost every year and ballooning debts.  
[2]. Cheap penny stocks; price < 50 sen  which drop from higher price (RM1 or RM5) due to high losses every year.
E.g. MAS
[3]. Low NTA (Net Tangible Assets) per share. Poor quality assets - little value & don't generate much income.
E.g. AMEDIA
[4]. High gearing and high debts. High risk - high chance they could not service the debts.
E.g. KNM - 1B debt, little or no profit/positive cash flow.
[5]. Stay flat when market goes up, goes down even fasterwhne stock market goes down.
E.g. COMPUGT  
[6]. Generous director fees, allowances and bonuses irrespective of the losses of the company.
E.g. SMTRACK  
[7]. No Dividend - irrespective of profit/(loss) of the company.
 
[8]. Target of stock market syndicates
E.g. GLOTEC, SUMATEC, HUBLINE, PDZ.
[9]. Juicy stories and Market rumours - created by the stock syndicates to entice retail investors
E.g. HIBISCS - plenty of MOU, magic touch of Dr Kenneth

[10]. They are usually speculative stocks; they can go very high up within a short time frame. 
E.g. SUMATEC

[11]. Always ask for money - every few years there is a rights issue or private placement.
E.g. LONBISC

[12]. Crappy management - playing company stocks for profit rather than running the company for a profit, selling their assets to the company at high valuations, approving stock options to themselves.
E.g. MPCORP
[13]. Heavily promoted in stock market forums, stock market magazines, newspapers and even Facebook stock groups. A good story.......
E.g. SUMATEC. GLOTEC, KNM, HUBLINE, PDZ. 

14. Red chip companies
E.g. CSL, HBGLOB, CAP, XDL, CHOUHUA
 
References:-

Friday 15 August 2014

Absolute PE Valuation - APOLLO (6432)

Let's calculate the intrinsic value for APOLLO based on Vitaliy Katsenelson's Absolute PE Valuation Model 

[1] No Growth PE

APOLLO's  Market Cap is around 400M, and a no growth P/E of 7 (EY: 14.2%) will be used here to be prudent.

[2] Expected EPS Growth Rate





Adjusted EPS CAGR for T4Q, Latest 5 FY and Latest 10 FY.
 

I am using the average of above EPS CAGR as my expected EPS Growth Rate - 8.054%

[3] Dividend Yield

Lates FY Dividend = 0.25
Stock Price = 5.05
DY = 4.95%

[4]  Business Risk




The ROE, ROA, ROIC and CROIC is in a up trend mode, and this indicate that APOLLO  has a good busines model, moat & capable management.

And there is 0% of intagible asset on APOLLO which indicate that the grow achieved by organic but not via acquisitions which could lead to issues later.

In view of above, I give a 5% premium to the business risk.

[5] Financial Risk



APOLLO have a high current ratio, 0 debt and strong free cash flow. Hence, a 10% premium is applied.

[6] Earning Visibility



 Revnue, Gross Profit, Operating Profit, Net Profit and Operating Cash Flow is in a clear uptrend mode. Thus, a 5% premium is applied.

[7] EPS
Average of Latest FY and T4Q EPS will be used - 0.3653

Based on above, we can calculate the intrinsic value for APOLLO

 

Vitaliy Katsenelson's Absolute PE Valuation Model  suggest 7.636 as the intrinsic value. And, this provide u a MOS of 33.865%

You may view below post if you interest to read more on APOLLO valuation and analysis:-

You may interest to view my writeup on Financial Statement Analysis template to help you to kick start for your hunting:-


References:-