Thursday 3 July 2014

Dividend Discount Model (DDM) for APOLLO


EPS40.10
DPS25.00

Discount Rate10%
As APOLLO’s earnings and cash flow has been steady and predictable, and it has no debt at all, you think a discount rate of 10% would be safe.

(1) You think that company A is now in the mature phase and you do not expect any growth of its earnings from now on. What is the fair price per share of company A based on its latest EPS?
Assumption: The dividend and eps have no growth at all. And the intrinsic value of a stock based on Dividend Discount Model (DDM) will be the Present Value of all future dividend.

Intrinsic Value2.500

(2) As company A pays regular and growing dividend for the past years, you want to value company A based on a constant growth of dividend of 5% for the rest of its economic life. What is the fair price of stock A based on the constant dividend growth model (Gordon growth model)?

Intrinsic Value5.000

(3) You foresee that company A will be growing for the next 5 years and its dividend will grow accordingly too. To be prudent, you assume that the EPS and DPS will continue to grow at 8.9%, the growth rate of EPS for the next 5 years, and then 5% subsequently.


123456
DPS27.22529.64802532.2866992335.1602154638.28947463804.0789673
PV24.7524.502524.25747524.0149002523.77475125453.8816147
Intrinsic Value5.75






(4) You are now thinking about investing in stock A for 5 years and sell it at the end of the fifth year. Assuming dividend grows for the first 5 years as question 3 above at 8.9% and at the end of 5 years; you are able to sell the stock at a price 15 times its earnings. What is the intrinsic value?


12345
DPS27.22529.64802532.2866992335.1602154638.28947463
PV for DPS24.7524.502524.25747524.0149002523.77475125






EPS43.668947.555432151.7878655656.3969855961.41631731






Stock Price @ end of 5th year
9.212447596


Stock Price @ today value
5.72020515


Intrinsic Value
6.933



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References:-

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