Monday 19 May 2014

Moat

  • 5 sources of moats 
    1. The network effect
    2. Customer switching costs
    3. Intangible assets
    4. Efficient scale 
    5. Cost advantage
  • The network effect
    • when you have customers that start using a network, that network suddenly becomes more valuable for all the other users of the network
    • e.g. eBay - It has the most buyers, and therefore it has the most sellers.
      And it has the most sellers because it has the most buyers.
    • e.g. Facebook -  When you or I join Facebook, Facebook suddenly becomes more valuable for all of our friends and as more of our friends join Facebook, it's more valuable for us.
    • Infrastructure:  We move our stuff faster, cheaper and more reliable than you.  E.g. Visa (V) or MasterCard (MA)
  • Customer switching costs
    • These are the inconveniences that customers would have when they switch from one product to another
    • Time is money and money is time. It may not cost money to switch from one service provider to another, but if it costs time that's the same thing.
  • Intangible assets
    • These are things like patents, basically an explicit monopoly, government licenses that explicitly block competition. 
    • Or [this can be a source] if a company has a strong brand that allows it some pricing power for that particular brand. 
    • Patents:  Even if you wanted to, you legally can’t do what we do.  e.g. APPL
    • Branding:  We are trusted to do the job and you’re not. e.g. KO
  • Efficient scale
    • You have a limited market that is being efficiently served by one or a very small number of competitors.
    • Some markets are just natural monopolies or natural oligopolies.
    • E.g. airport companies like the Mexican airports - it doesn't make economic sense to have more than one
    • Geography:  We have our stuff in the right places and you don’t.  E.g. Union Pacific Railroad
  • Cost Advantage
    • A company that can provide a better service at a lower cost than the competition.
    • A fatter profit margin or the same profit margin as the competitors
    • Higher volume and higher asset turnover. 
    • Economies of Scale:  We’re so big, not using us will cost you.  e.g. Wal-Mart
    • Low Cost Resource Base
  • The moats are not impenetrable. But it still makes life easier when you have a moat.
    •  Union Pacific Railroad still has to compete with trucks.
    • Visa and MasterCard compete against cash, PayPal,
    • Apple’s patents are constantly challenged and becoming obsolete at a rapid pace.
    • Coke can easily fall out of favor. 
    •  Wal-Mart is in a constant price war with Target and other retailers.
  • How to identify moat? Look for Gross Margin 
    • [1] consistency [2] the higher the better
    • Company only able to charge premium price when customer willing to pay for the value added product / service.
    • It cannot be replicate by the competitor, else it it becomes a price battleground.
  • Wide Moat
    • Intagible assets - health care (patents) & consumer sectors (brands) - the best returns on capital.
    • Look for the sustainability and not the absolute level. 
      • Random fashion retailer that happens to get lucky, hit some fashion trend and has a 50% return on capital for a year or two..
      •  Railroad or a pipeline, 10% ROC - the sustainability of that return is exceptionally long
  • Narrow Moat 
    • Efficient scale - lowest ROC. They have a moat because of positive economic profits, and thus attract new competition into market. 
  • Stability of earnings
    • Network effect company have the least stability in term of their earnings.
    • Cost advantage & intagible asset firms did relatively well.


References:-

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